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Application of linear model in analysing the climatic factors contributing to the spread of covid-19 transmission in Nigeria with particular reference to Lagos State

Authors: Lawal F. K, Ehimony J, B, Olumi T, T

Coronavirus disease popularly called COVID-19 has become a worldwide pandemic having more than 5 million confirmed cases and over 290,000 confirmed deaths globally.  There have been a lot of studies on the influence of temperature and humidity on the transmission of related infectious respiratory diseases, such as influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). This study therefore considered the effects of daily temperature and humidity on COVID-19 transmission in Lagos State. We use Correlation analysis and generalized linear Poisson regression on the incidence data on COVID-19 and meteorological data for the corresponding periods from 1st 0ctober, 2020 to 31st May, 2021. Our results showed that atmospheric temperature has a significant weak positive correlation with COVID-19 transmission in Lagos while humidity has week negative correlation to Covid-19 in Lagos State. There is a positive relationship between covid-19 and Temperature while Humidity has a negative relationship with Akaike’s information criterion of 39656 and deviance residual under 188 degree of freedom of 3855.    
 

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