Application of linear model in analysing the climatic factors contributing to the spread of covid-19 transmission in Nigeria with particular reference to Lagos State

Authors: Lawal F. K, Ehimony J, B, Olumi T, T

Coronavirus disease popularly called COVID-19 has become a worldwide pandemic having more than 5 million confirmed cases and over 290,000 confirmed deaths globally.  There have been a lot of studies on the influence of temperature and humidity on the transmission of related infectious respiratory diseases, such as influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). This study therefore considered the effects of daily temperature and humidity on COVID-19 transmission in Lagos State. We use Correlation analysis and generalized linear Poisson regression on the incidence data on COVID-19 and meteorological data for the corresponding periods from 1st 0ctober, 2020 to 31st May, 2021. Our results showed that atmospheric temperature has a significant weak positive correlation with COVID-19 transmission in Lagos while humidity has week negative correlation to Covid-19 in Lagos State. There is a positive relationship between covid-19 and Temperature while Humidity has a negative relationship with Akaike’s information criterion of 39656 and deviance residual under 188 degree of freedom of 3855.    

Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC, 2020), “Symptoms of coronavirus,”   https://www.cdc.gov/corinavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/symptoms.html view at: Google Scholar

Demongeot, J, Flet-Berliac, Y and  Seligmann, H (2020). “Temperature decreases spread parameters of the new COVID-19 case dynamics,” Biology, vol. 9, no. 5, p. 94,              View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar

Kuiken, T,  Fouchier, T,  Schutten, (2003) “Newly discovered coronavirus as the primary cause of severe acute respiratory syndrome,” The Lancet, vol. 362, no. 9380, pp. 263–270, 2003.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar

Lagos State Government (LASG 2020), “About Lagos,”, https://lagosstate.gov.ng/about-lagos/.View at: Google Scholar  

Li, Q, Guan, X, Wu, P (2020). “Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia,” New England Journal of Medicine, vol. 382, no.              13, pp. 1199–1207, View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar  

Ma, Y, Zhao, Y, Liu J. (2020) “Effects of temperature variation and humidity on the death of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China,” Science of the Total Environment, vol. 724,              Article ID 138226, .View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar

Moriyama, M, Hugentobler, W and Iwasaki, A (2020). “Seasonality of respiratory viral infections,” Annual Review of Virolog, vol. 7, no. 1,.View at:               Publisher Site | Google Scholar  

Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC, 2020), “Coronavirus (COVID-19)               highlights,”, https://covid19.ncdc.gov.ng.View at: Google Scholar Okwuraiwe A,  Onwuamah, C, Amoo, O . (2020), “First African SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence from Nigerian COVID-19 case,” View at: Publisher Site | Google

Scholar Qi, H, Xiao, S, Shi R, (2020). “COVID-19 transmission in Mainland China is associated with temperature and humidity: a time-series analysis,” Science of the Total                  Environment, vol. 728, Article ID 138778, .View at: Publisher Site | Google    

Shi, P, Dong, P, Yan, H (2020). “The impact of temperature and absolute humidity on the  coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak—evidence from China,” MedRxiv,  View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar

Tan, J, Mu, L, Huang, J, Yu, S, Chen, B and Yin, J (2005). “An initial investigation of the association between the SARS outbreak and weather: with the view of the environmental temperature and its variation,” Journal of Epidemiology &              Community Health, vol. 59, no. 3, pp. 186–192, View at: Publisher Site | Google              Scholar

Tosepu, R. Gunawan, J, Effendy, D (2020)., “Correlation between weather and Covid-19              pandemic in Jakarta, Indonesia,” Science of the Total Environment, vol. 725,               Article ID 138436, .View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar

Wang, M Jiang, A, Gong L (2020). “Temperature significant change COVID-19              transmission in 429 cities,” MedRxiv, View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar  

Wang, M Cao, R, Zhang, L (2020). “Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro,” Cell Research, vol. 30,              no. 3, pp. 269–271.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar

WHO, “Q&A on coronaviruses (COVID-19),” 2020,               https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses.View at: Google               Scholar

WHO, “Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic,”                (2020), https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019.View               at: Google Scholar

Wikipedia, “Lagos state,” (2020), https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagos_State.View at: Google Scholar

Xu, Z, Hu, W, Williams, G, Clements, A, Kan, H  and Tong, S (2013)“Air pollution,  temperature and pediatric influenza in Brisbane, Australia,” Environment          International, vol. 59, pp. 384–388,View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar

Yao, Y. Pan, J. Liu, Z. Meng, X. (2020)“No association of COVID-19 transmission with temperature or UV radiation in Chinese cities,” European Respiratory Journal, vol.55, no. 5, Article ID 2000517, 2020, In press.View at: Publisher Site |  Google Scholar 


Related Articles



Get answers and advice from people you want it from.

  • #